The E-Sylum:  Volume 7, Number 51, December 19, 2004, Article 11

BILINKSI INVESTMENT GUIDE REVEIWED

  Regarding Dick Johnson's discussion of Bilinski's work
  on U.S. collector demographics, Bob Leonard writes:
  "I've got a copy of the second edition of Dr. Robert 
  Bilinski's A Guide To Coin Investment, copyright 1958.  
  The text is mimeographed (!) on two colors of paper.  
  To answer Dick's question, the collector demographics 
  material appears in Chapter IV, pp. 20-65.  Bilinski 
  was nothing if not precise [Dave Bowers would choke on 
  this claimed accuracy]:  "There are currently 2,118,250 
  coin collectors over 13 years of age in the United 
  States; this figure represents an increase of 178,250 
  over the 1957 total...There are 53,000 hard-core 
  collectors...individuals who collect coins with all 
  the interest and energy they can muster [not, thank 
  goodness, collectors of "hard core"]...882,000 active 
  collectors...210,000 fringe collectors...746,000 passive
  collectors...227,250 temporary collectors."  Taken as 
  rough ratios, these numbers may have some meaning.

  Skipping over the distribution of collectors by state 
  ("South Dakota...4,236", etc.), we come to AGE DISTRIBUTION
  OF COLLECTORS IN THE UNITED STATES (pp. 23-4).  This is 
  presented as a bar chart, so I can't quote any figures, 
  but the tallest bar is 46-55, with 36-45 second.  I 
  believe that Numismatic News just completed a readership 
  survey, and the average age of a NN reader was 59.  I 
  think this is borne out by recent surveys at the ANA and 
  Coin World, i.e., that the average ANA member/Coin World 
  reader is in his late 50s.  So there does seem to have 
  been some aging of collectors since Dr. Bilinski's 1958 
  survey, though his inclusion of "passive" and "temporary" 
  collectors may have skewed the results.

  Leafing through this book, one is struck by how utterly 
  useless it is as a guide to coin investment for our 
  time.  None of the things now considered important (MS 65
  or better condition, certified by a major grading service,
  rainbow toning, Deep Mirror Cameo, Registry Set Quality, 
  recovered from a famous shipwreck, etc.) is even 
  contemplated, let alone considered.  But it was right on 
  target for the late 50s - early 60s, with Bilinski's 
  forecasted prices for future years being quickly surpassed. 
  There is a lesson here for anyone presuming to advise 
  others on long-term investment in hard assets."

  Wayne Homren, Editor

	coinbooks.org Web

The Numismatic Bibliomania Society is a non-profit organization 
promoting numismatic literature. See our web site at coinbooks.org.

To submit items for publication in The E-Sylum, write to the Editor 
at this address: whomren@coinlibrary.com

To subscribe go to: https://my.binhost.com/lists/listinfo/esylum