I propose the Partrick 1792 Challenge. Heritage will be selling the Donald G. Partrick 1792 patterns during their FUN auction beginning January 7, 2015. The twelve coins are lots 5501 through 5512.

I intend to predict what each of the lots will realize at the sale. I propose to send my predictions to Wayne prior to the sale. I invite anyone else to also submit their estimates to Wayne. Let's go with hammer price to keep it somewhat more simple.

I've specialized, among other fields, in 1792 American pattern coinage for many decades and I'd imagine I'm as attuned to the American classic coin market as much as anyone, attending most of the major shows and auctions going back to the 1960's.

But I have absolutely no idea how the Partrick 1792 patterns will do. The following are factors that significantly cloud the forecasts:

There is a veritable avalanche of rare top quality classic U.S. flooding the marketplace for the past year and this will continue into 2016 with Pogue, Kendall, Newman and Partrick, among others. There is only so much money out there.

The recent auction of one of the finest known gold 1787 Brasher doubloons for slightly more than $4M (most thought it would exceed $6M ) when the private sale of another comparable specimen exceeded $7M is an indication now of the peak of the marketplace for one of the most desirable American coins, substantially more desirable than an uncirculated Birch cent or Wright pattern copper quarter.

The veritable flood of gem condition 1792 half dismes at auction over the past 2 years, from over $1.5M down to a bit over $400K. another indication of the stability of the market. To a lesser extent, there also have been quite a number of 1792 silver center cents on the auction block. One sold privately for over $5M while others have sold for less than $1M and a recent auction sale represented a substantial loss to one buyer who'd acquired it just 2 years prior.

Several high quality 1792 patterns like the silver center cent, the Birch cent and the copper disme are appearing in the Partrick coll'n this week and then in March with the Henry Kendall Foundation collection- unprecedented in coin auction history. Too much too soon and this should impact the Partrick prices when bidders realize there's another opportunity fast approaching.

The Partrick collection contains the possibly unique copper half disme which has a large planchet defect (?) prominent on Liberty's cheek. The same may be said for the 1/4th deeply corroded copper disme. How to value the market value of such damaged coins? Inexplicably, the collection contains no silver half disme.

The Chas. Jay-Laird Park AU Birch cent (with prominent carbon spotting) was on the market a few years back for $3M and then $2.5M and did not sell. One would have thought a high grade Birch cent would have been worth that.

Whatever these patterns bring, I will be at the sale making catalogue notations on opening/closing bids, and underbidders' and buyers' names if they can be determined.

Everything you say is true. This will be a fantastic sale of great material and will truly be a "once-in-a-lifetime" opportunity.

I believe I will appreciate the prices realized after the sale better if I make the attempt to project prices before the sale. I am willing to show the public how an informed numismatist can be right or wrong in making such guesses.

In my opinion, presale internet bids are already strong. It is possible that some of these will sell without any floor bidding.