Martin Kaplan submitted these comments in response to Dick Johnson's article on predictions for the numismatic future. Thanks!
The article by Dick Johnson about the future of numismatics brought up several interesting points. One of the first questions both
collectors and investors ask is "what's it worth?" Prices for top items in early 2016 have escalated to levels thought
impossible just a few years ago. Coins from the Pogue Collection are the perfect example. These are the finest of the finest and are
setting records when sold. I don't know the number of coins that have sold for more than $1,000,000.00 but price levels once thought
impossible are now commonplace.
No one can predict the future. Predicting the future is an exercise in extrapolating existing trends or thinking outside the box and
foreseeing what might well seem an unrealistic future.
Mr. Johnson's prediction "1. The churning of rare coin sales at auctions among investors at ever increasing prices – like the
Dutch tulip craze -- will someday bust. Prices will fall to a sustained level supported only by collector interest."
How many times in the past have these words been spoken? What seemed like market peaks, "prices CANNOT go higher", have proven
over time to be conservative values.
I believe what makes today different is globalization. The number of people with more wealth throughout the world is expanding at an
accelerating rate. Millionaires are increasing at an astounding rate. According to the Forbes report released in March 2015, there are
currently 1,826 U.S. dollar billionaires worldwide, from 66 countries.
Art and collectibles are examples of alternative assets that are growing in popularity among wealthy individuals worldwide.
Using globalization and rapidly growing personal wealth as evidence, I challenge Mr. Johnson's prediction...
"The churning of rare coin sales at auctions among investors at ever increasing prices – like the Dutch tulip craze -- will
someday bust. Prices will fall to a sustained level supported only by collector interest."
Yes, markets always have and always will experience boom and bust cycles. But long term I do not foresee Mr. Johnson's prediction as
the outcome for the rare coin market.
To read the earlier E-Sylum article, see:
DICK JOHNSON'S PREDICTIONS FOR THE FUTURE OF NUMISMATICS
THE BOOK BAZARRE
SELECTIONS FROM THE JOHN HUFFMAN LIBRARY
: Browse and Shop Approximately 3,000 Numismatic Books from the Respected Library
of John Huffman—All Books Recently Discounted 40%. Click here
or go to
www.SecondStorybooks.com click on “All Subjects” and select “John Huffman Collection”
Wayne Homren, Editor
The Numismatic Bibliomania Society is a non-profit organization
promoting numismatic literature. See our web site at coinbooks.org.
To submit items for publication in The E-Sylum, write to the Editor
at this address: email@example.com
To subscribe go to: https://my.binhost.com/lists/listinfo/esylum
Copyright © 1998 - 2020 The Numismatic Bibliomania Society (NBS)
All Rights Reserved.
NBS Home Page
Contact the NBS webmaster