MORE THOUGHTS ON THE FUTURE OF NUMISMATICS

PREV ARTICLE NEXT ARTICLE FULL ISSUE PREV FULL ISSUE

V19 2016 INDEX E-SYLUM ARCHIVE

The E-Sylum: Volume 19, Number 6, February 7, 2016, Article 22

Martin Kaplan submitted these comments in response to Dick Johnson's article on predictions for the numismatic future. Thanks! -Editor

The article by Dick Johnson about the future of numismatics brought up several interesting points. One of the first questions both collectors and investors ask is "what's it worth?" Prices for top items in early 2016 have escalated to levels thought impossible just a few years ago. Coins from the Pogue Collection are the perfect example. These are the finest of the finest and are setting records when sold. I don't know the number of coins that have sold for more than $1,000,000.00 but price levels once thought impossible are now commonplace.

No one can predict the future. Predicting the future is an exercise in extrapolating existing trends or thinking outside the box and foreseeing what might well seem an unrealistic future.

Mr. Johnson's prediction "1. The churning of rare coin sales at auctions among investors at ever increasing prices – like the Dutch tulip craze -- will someday bust. Prices will fall to a sustained level supported only by collector interest."

How many times in the past have these words been spoken? What seemed like market peaks, "prices CANNOT go higher", have proven over time to be conservative values.

I believe what makes today different is globalization. The number of people with more wealth throughout the world is expanding at an accelerating rate. Millionaires are increasing at an astounding rate. According to the Forbes report released in March 2015, there are currently 1,826 U.S. dollar billionaires worldwide, from 66 countries.

Art and collectibles are examples of alternative assets that are growing in popularity among wealthy individuals worldwide.

Using globalization and rapidly growing personal wealth as evidence, I challenge Mr. Johnson's prediction...

"The churning of rare coin sales at auctions among investors at ever increasing prices – like the Dutch tulip craze -- will someday bust. Prices will fall to a sustained level supported only by collector interest."

Yes, markets always have and always will experience boom and bust cycles. But long term I do not foresee Mr. Johnson's prediction as the outcome for the rare coin market.

THE BOOK BAZARRE

SELECTIONS FROM THE JOHN HUFFMAN LIBRARY: Browse and Shop Approximately 3,000 Numismatic Books from the Respected Library of John Huffman—All Books Recently Discounted 40%. Click here or go to www.SecondStorybooks.com click on “All Subjects” and select “John Huffman Collection”