I have in my numismatic library a 1982 book entitled The Complete Investor’s Guide to Silver Dollar Investing by Dick A. Reed, who was a coin dealer in Phoenix, AZ. It may be of interest that back in those days, silver dollar dealers recognized only six MS price points: 60, 63, 64, 65, 67 and 69. They also recognized prooflikes in 63 and 65. The book then went on to predict the investment potential of each date and mintmark in each recognized grade level. Investment potential was given as percentage of return, annual simple interest. 1881-S in “investment grades” (MS-65-69) was predicted to increase at 20% per annum. According to Coin Dealer Newsletter, bid on 1881-S in MS-65 went from $87.50 in January to $110 in December of that year – a 25% gain, so maybe Mr. Reed was not living in a fantasy world at the time.

According to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) as published by the US government (https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/supplemental-files/historical-cpi-u-201803.pdf), the CPI is now 2.5 times that of 1982. If you had a coin worth $100 then, it would have to be worth $250 today to break even. By contrast, a $100 coin that appreciated 20% each year since 1982 would now be worth over $70,000! We know that didn’t happen to 1881-S Morgans or pretty much any other coin. As this is written the PCGS Price Guide lists MS-65 1881-S Morgans at $145 retail, more than in 1982, but well behind the CPI. However, we can’t even compare a MS-65 from 1982 to one today, as grading standards for Morgan dollars have changed substantially several times since then. In 1982, “MS-65” meant whatever the dealer said it meant, which is why we now have third party grading.