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THE NUMISMATIC MARKET AND THE STOCK MARKETGiven this week's big drop in the stock market, Martin Kaplan asked,"How do rare coin and banknote values hold up in times of turmoil on Wall Street? "When Wall Street is in turmoil, bear market, does this attract money to the rare coin and banknote market? "Obviously gold and silver bullion attract interest, but numismatic items?" I passed the questions along to Q. David Bowers, who was written a lot about markets and investing over the years. He referred us to the following passage in his 2005 book, The Expert's Guide to Collecting and Investing in Rare Coins. -Editor Watching Stock Market Bears
1930s • Bear stock market of the 1930s Depression: Time of great growth in the rare coin market. 1946-1947 • Bear stock market of May 1946 to May 1947: Boom time for the coin market. 1961-1962 • Bear stock market of December 1961 to June 1962: Boom time for the coin market, when all of those 1950-D nickels were rising in price. 1966 • Bear stock market of February to October 1966: Bear time in the coin market as well as the stock market; gloom prevailed. 1973-1974 • Bear stock market of January 1973 to December 1974: Boom time for the coin market. 1976-1978 • Bear stock market of September 1976 to September 1978: Boom time for the coin market. 1981-1982 • Bear stock market of April 1981 to August 1982: Bears everywhere, in coins and in stocks. 1987 • Bear stock market of August to October 1987: Boom time for the coin market. 1990 • Bear stock market of July to October 1990: So many bears were prowling around the coin market that only Bayer aspirin could solve the headaches! 2000-2003 • Bear stock market of March 2000 for the next several years. NASDAQ peaked at 5048.62 on March 10, 2000, and fell to a bear-market low of 1114.11 on October 9, 2002. The Dow-Jones Industrial Average fell, but not nearly as much, as it was/is composed of more seasoned stocks. The coin market is afire with interest in ultra-high grade certified modern coins. I discuss separate movements of the rare coin market later in this book. The coin market has had its share of knocks, such as 1947-1950, when stocks were doing very well, but buyers for coins, even rarities, were scarcely seen. A fair summary is to say that while both the coin and stock markets have their own cycles, hardly ever do the twain meet. It is also probably fair to say that choice rare coins have been a great passive investment, when bought carefully and held. In contrast, successful investing in stocks would seem to require constant management. The darlings of a generation ago can be dead today. Martin adds: "The real story of how alternative assets, numismatics, fare in times of turbulence will be revealed in the Stack's auctions in Baltimore." 1) might the sale be cancelled?
"Stay tuned!" Thanks. Great questions and discussion. A new virus and potential global pandemic are certainly enough to cause major public events to be cancelled, such as the postponed Hong Kong show. But so much bidding takes place online these days I think the worst outcome for auctions in areas far from the outbreak would be to cancel in-person bidding and carry on online. Financial gyrations could indeed affect the level of bidding, but as Dave's notes indicate, there's no apparent correlation; the coin market could be up, down or just sideways. Like Martin says, we'll see. -Editor To read the earlier E-Sylum article, see:
THE BOOK BAZARREWayne Homren, Editor The Numismatic Bibliomania Society is a non-profit organization promoting numismatic literature. See our web site at coinbooks.org. To submit items for publication in The E-Sylum, write to the Editor at this address: whomren@gmail.com To subscribe go to: https://my.binhost.com/lists/listinfo/esylum All Rights Reserved. NBS Home Page Contact the NBS webmaster 
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