The E-Sylum:  Volume 5, Number 3, January 20, 2002, Article 8

HEADS OR HEADS?

  From a January 2nd article in The New Scientist: "The
  introduction of the Euro, the largest currency switch in
  history, has proceeded with few problems - until now.
  Polish statisticians say the one Euro coin, at least in
  Belgium, does not have an equal chance of landing
  "heads" or "tails".  They allege that, when spun on a
  smooth surface, the coin comes up heads more often.

  The observation is not to be taken lightly on a sports-mad
  continent where important decisions can turn on the flip
  of a coin. But the accusation of bias has been countered
  by statistical analysis from, of all places, Euro-sceptic Britain.
  The UK is one of only three EU countries that have not
  adopted the common currency.

  Tomasz Gliszczynski and Waclaw Zawadowski, statistics
  teachers at the Akademia Podlaska in Siedlce, received
  Belgian Euro coins from Poles returning from jobs in
  Belgium and immediately set their students spinning them.
  Gliszczynski says spinning is a more sensitive way of
  revealing if a coin is weighted than the more usual method
  of tossing in the air.

  The range of 6.2 per cent on either side of 50 per cent is
  expected to cover the results, even with a fair coin, in 95
  of every 100 experiments.  Nonetheless, Grubb cautions,
  the Polish result is at the outside of this range, and would
  be expected in only about 7 of every 100 experiments with
  a fair coin, leaving a glimmer of hope for their hypothesis.
  Clearly, more research is needed.

  Gliszczynski plans to continue his experiments - aimed
  mainly at teaching his students statistics - with the German
  Euro, which has an eagle on its heads side, and present
  them at a conference in February.

  New Scientist carried out its own experiments with the
  Belgian Euro in its Brussels office. Heads came up five
  per cent less often than tails. This looks like the opposite
  of the Polish result but in fact - in terms of statistical
  significance - it is the same one."

  http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99991748

  [Is anyone familiar with other coins that have been
  suspected of not being fair when spun or flipped?
  Have any kickoffs have been decided by the flip of
  a high-relief St. Gaudens $20 gold piece? -Editor]

  Wayne Homren, Editor

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