The E-Sylum:  Volume 5, Number 20, May 12, 2002, Article 5

CATALOGUE ESTIMATES

  Allan Davisson writes: "Regarding the Astarte catalog
  estimates and estimating in general:

  I looked more carefully at the Astarte catalog after
  someone raised a question about the estimate being the
  opening bid.  It seemed to me that the opening bid prices,
  in general, were reasonable and conservative.  It is
  refreshing, in a sense, to know the exact reserve price.

  Estimates can be all over the place, a comment I frequently
  make in my own catalogs.  I try to estimate at what I
  believe to be the current market value.  Like anyone, I misfire.
  But I see catalogs that have very low estimates, typically
  European, and no one expects the coins to sell at that level.
  Other catalogs, particularly buy-or-bid sales use high
  estimates--they know that the maximum they will get for a
  coin is the estimate.

  U.S. catalogs provide no estimates (usually). My
  understanding is that this is because the market is in constant
  fluctuation. It seems to me somewhat unlikely that the
  changes are going to be that rapid that some estimate guides
  could not be provided.  I would be interested in the typical
  "scatter" of bids that a major U.S. sale gets. Estimates seem
  to me useful guides and I wonder if the explanation I
  suggested above is the whole story.  (Estimates are a
  substantial amount of work involving catalog and market
  research after the full effort at attribution.)

  One last note: my catalogs have a pretty good United
  Kingdom distribution (I estimate in both dollars and pounds.)
  I have noticed, and have confirmed it with others who serve
  both the US and British market, that Americans seem more
  dependent on estimates than British collectors.  This is most
  evident by the willingness of bidders to go well beyond the
  estimate when they particularly want a coin."

  Wayne Homren, Editor

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