In his Coin World Numismatic Bookie
column, Joel Orosz discusses the track record of a 1960s
numismatic market forecaster. -Editor
Last month, we discussed the first book written about
speculating in — as opposed to collecting — U.S. coins, A
Guide to Coin Investment (published in 1957), and its
estimable author, Dr. Robert Bilinski. This month we meet the man
once described as Bilinski’s “evil twin,” the author of The
Profit March series on coin investment, the Barnumesque George
Haylings.
Mr. Haylings left Detroit for California during the Great
Depression, and shivered through two years living in a tent until
he discovered, as one of his book titles put it, 125 Ways to
Make Money with Your Typewriter. Haylings turned out a series
of how-to-earn-a-quick-buck books, including two with chapters
advising readers to invest in coins: Hidden Dollars (1947)
and Vacations Unlimited (1952). By 1960, the long postwar
bull market in coins inspired Haylings to write The Profit
March of Your Coins from 1935 to 1968.
Dr. Bilinski had extensively researched the coin market and
used data to make conservative projections of future price
performance. Haylings’ methods combined hype, uncritical
extrapolation of past results, and wildly optimistic predictions.
There were a million coin collectors in 1954, 3 million in 1960,
and would be 5 million in 1966. In the go-go coin market of the
early 1960s, Haylings looked like a prophet.
In 1964 he wrote The Profit March of Your Coin Investment,
1935–1971, twice as long as his first Profit March, and 10 times
as enthusiastic about speculating in coins: “… the most
astounding investment to be found on earth today!” Now he
predicted that soon there would be 20 million coin
collectors!
Haylings crowed that rare coin prices had risen “… over the
past 29 years, with all indications that the same relentless
increase in prices will go right on for the next 29 years.” The
stretch from 1964 to 1993, however, proved a roller coaster for
the rare coin market, with three boom periods and three busts,
starting with a market meltdown in 1966.
This explains why so many of Hayling’s 1964 profit predictions
for 1971 were laughably lousy. Four examples:
1942-S Lincoln cent — Haylings’ prediction: $2,315 per roll.
Actual: $125.
1937 Proof set — Haylings’ prediction: $1,390. Actual:
$350.
1952-D Jefferson 5-cent coin — “The sleeper of all time, in my
opinion.” Haylings’ prediction: $2,175 per roll. Actual (still
sleeping): $87.
1950-D 5-cent coin — “The king of all rolls! Number one on the
‘top’ list! Without a doubt the gilt-edged security in the coin
investment field. I am predicting that the price will be $10,000
per roll … in 1971, 157 times the 1954 price!” Actual: less than
$50 per roll. Did Haylings eventually feel guilty for calling it
“gilt-edged”?
He wrote another Profit March book in 1964, focusing on Indian
Head 5-cent coins and small cents. Eventually, however, readers
realized that profits were marching to Mr. Haylings, but not to
them, and demand for his investment guides evaporated.
The Profit March series still provides unintentionally
hilarious reading. Haylings’ pie-in-the-sky predictions offer
endless chuckles, but don’t overlook his coin care suggestions.
In the last-named book, he recommends tumbling Uncirculated coins
in powdered stearic acid and rubbing them with a chamois cloth
before putting them into a plastic storage tube. Kids: DO NOT try
this at home!
To read the complete article, see:
George Haylings was a prophet who was wrong on coin
investments
(www.coinworld.com/news/us-coins/2016/09/investment-book-authors-advice-was-not-so-good.all.html)
THE BOOK BAZARRE
AUTHORS AND PUBLISHERS: Are your books carried by Wizard
Coin Supply? If not, contact us via www.WizardCoinSupply.com
with details.
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Wayne Homren, Editor
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